It's not a coincidence that the turnovers are strongly correlated with success -- just ask Texas Tech, which is 0-14-3 in the turnover battle in its last 17 games. In those 17 games, the Red Raiders are 6-11.
TCU and Kansas State, two of the top teams in the Big 12, are at the other end of the turnover spectrum. TCU is +15 in turnovers this season, forcing 26 while only turning the ball over 11 times. It's the best turnover margin in FBS. Kansas State has only turned the ball over seven times; tied for seventh in FBS.
It's not a stretch to believe that Saturday's game between the Horned Frogs and WIldcats will be decided by which team deviates furthest from its season trend.
"They don't turn the ball over much," TCU coach Gary Patterson said. "You have to find a way to win and score one more point. They do a great job. Because of our mindset, this will be a different team than they have played the last two years. Both of us can play ground and pound or play action. It's a little different animal."
Last week against Oklahoma State, Kansas State had just one official turnover, a pick-six thrown by backup quarterback Joe Hubener when the Wildcats were up 45-7 in the fourth quarter. But while Kansas State has been good protecting the football, it's only forced half the turnovers (13) TCU has.
"We have been reasonably productive with not turning the ball over, but we had not created a substantial amount of turnovers," Kansas State coach Bill Snyder said. "I think that has elevated a little bit. We have continued to be reasonably possessive with the ball. We had the interception that Joe threw the other night. When you pull the wire out of it, it really was not his responsibility, but nevertheless, he threw it and got credit for it. Jake (Waters) had one but then got hit. That was a bad throw on his part and he realizes that. That was not the decision - he just made a bad throw."
TCU is No. 6 in the College Football Playoff Rankings and Kansas State is No. 7. The winner not only becomes the highest team in the CFP poll, but, depending on Baylor's game against Oklahoma, also assumes control of the Big 12. If the Bears lose to the Sooners, and TCU wins, it'll have a tiebreaker over Kansas State and a game over both Baylor and Oklahoma. If Kansas State wins, the Wildcats will have at least a game on everyone in the conference with a trip to Baylor still looming.
Three of Kansas State's last four games are on the road and include a trip to West Virginia on November 20. TCU's already been through the gauntlet of its schedule. The final three games for the Horned Frogs are against Kansas, Texas and Iowa State.
"I think that the whole team has accepted the challenge, we are playing some really tough teams coming up," Kansas State defensive back Morgan Burns said. "I do not think that we are nervous about that. I think that if we have come to this point, playing teams like Oklahoma State and Texas, even though their records are not great, they are still great teams that have had a lot of success in the past. I think that if we overlook any team in the Big 12, they can beat you on any given day. I am excited for this stretch, the challenge that we have and the opportunity we have to do something really special."
For more Kansas State news, visit GoPowercat.com
For more TCU news, visit PurpleMenace.com
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Nick Bromberg is the assistant editor of Dr. Saturday on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at nickbromberg@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter!
From Dr. Saturday - NCAAF - Yahoo Sports - Will TCU or Kansas State deviate from the turnover trends on Saturday?
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