Mea culpa.
After doing reasonably well last year, I started off 2014 with a nosedive. Only Louisville's win over Miami saved me from a 0-10 week. Yikes.
So with that in mind, you can fade me this week and I won't complain. I deserve it. On the bright side, I figure I can't do much worse, right? The goal is being over .500 by the end of week 3. Let's make it happen.
Missouri (-3.5) at Toledo, Noon ET: When was the last time you saw a top-five SEC team from the year before with a low line like this against a MAC team? This is the second year of a home-and-home at the site of Missouri coach Gary Pinkel's first head coaching job. Last year's line was +16 for Toledo and the Rockets lost by 15 in Columbia. Plus, Toledo might have been more impressive against New Hampshire than Missouri was against South Dakota State. It doesn't matter. Go against the trendy upset pick. Missouri by 10.
Kansas State (-12) at Iowa State, Noon ET: The only time Iowa State has lost by more than a touchdown to Kansas State in the past five seasons was last year in Manhattan, Kan. And it's probably fitting that the last two FBS opponents to lose to North Dakota State meet in the second week of the season. However, Kansas State had many chances last year and may be the third-best team in the Big 12 this year. Iowa State was shellacked last week.
Western Kentucky (+5.5) at Illinois, Noon ET: If Illinois wants a chance at a bowl this year it has to win this game. The illini struggled with Youngstown State last week while Jeff Brohm's debut on the sidelines for Western Kentucky couldn't have gone much better. We're going to be brave too and say that WKU wins this game outright.
USC at Stanford (-2.5), 3:30 p.m. ET: Stanford by less than a field goal seems like a bargain here. There's considerable overreaction to USC's win over Fresno State. Fresno couldn't find a competent QB and USC QB Cody Kessler has missed practice time with a toe issue this week. I'm on record as saying that Stanford wins this by 12, but it'll be because of a late score.
Ole Miss at Vanderbilt (+20), 4:30 p.m. ET: While Ole Miss QB Bo Wallace struggled in the first half against Boise State, so did Grant Hedrick and the Broncos. Had Boise State been able to capitalize on Wallace's wretchedness, Ole Miss' torrid fourth quarter would have been for a comeback and not a blowout. Plus, things have to get better for Vanderbilt. The Commodores aren't giving the Rebels seven turnovers like it did against Temple.
Michigan State (+12), at Oregon, 6:30 p.m. ET: At the risk of being a cliché, what Pac-12 team does Michigan State most resemble? What Pac-12 team has been Oregon's kryptonite? Oregon is rightfully favored in this game, but it's by a bit too much. Connor Cook is a good enough QB to keep up with Oregon if the Ducks aren't completely stifled by the Spartan defense.
Michigan at Notre Dame (OVER 56.5), 7:30 p.m. ET: Let's have a shootout for the final game between the Irish and the Wolverines. This has been a high scoring series over the past five seasons; the 2012 game is the outlier and it's because both defenses were stout and allowed less than 20 points per game. The 2014 defenses aren't as good. Both Devin Gardner and Everett Golson will pile up yards and touchdowns.
Virginia Tech at Ohio State (-11), 8:00 p.m. ET: J.T. Barrett looked more comfortable as the Navy game went on and Ohio State will take advantage of an inexperienced Virginia Tech front seven. Most of Virginia Tech's key contributors on offense in week one were freshmen. A night game in the Horseshoe is a tough test for an inaugural road game.
Memphis at UCLA (-23.5), 10:30 p.m. ET: This has bounceback game written all over it. Brett Hundley will light up an improving Memphis defense and the panic about the Bruin offensive line will quiet down. Similar to the reaction with USC, take advantage of a brief change of UCLA perception after the first week.
Oregon State (-10.5) at Hawaii, 10:30 p.m. ET: Don't let the Washington game fool you about Hawaii. The Huskies' offense looked brutal without QB Cyler Miles, who was suspended for the opener. Oregon State has Sean Mannion, who looked like an All-American for the first half of last season. Plus, the last time Oregon State had to travel it went to Hawaii for the Hawaii Bowl. The rigors of the trip are fresh in their minds.
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Nick Bromberg is the assistant editor of Dr. Saturday on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at nickbromberg@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter!
From Dr. Saturday - NCAAF - Yahoo Sports - Spread Options: Dr. Saturday's week two picks against the spread
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