Friday, January 16, 2015

The best pro decisions following the early-entry NFL draft deadline



Now that the early-entry draft deadline for underclassmen has passed, it's time for some instant analysis. Who made the best decision to go? Who made the best decision to stay? What's the most head-scratching one? We've got our answers to those questions below.


Best decision to go pro: We're going to stick with the obvious here and go with Jameis Winston. While Winston is going to be picked apart endlessly over the next few months as the endless NFL draft talk goes on until May, Winston didn't need to spend another season as Florida State's quarterback.


At Florida State, Winston was going to once again be the most-watched and polarizing player in college football, a title that he took from Johnny Manziel in 2014. If he threw another 18 interceptions in 2015, there's no telling how his draft stock would be impacted.


Plus, it's easier to stay out of the spotlight while training for the draft than having fun on a college campus again. And when Winston is drafted, he'll get to cede the spotlight to a myriad of other NFL players who are the faces of the league. Even if he's drafted No. 1 overall, which is a distinct possibility.


Best decision to stay: Let's go with Cody Kessler, who would likely be the third quarterback off the board (at best) in the 2015 NFL draft. By staying in school for another season, Kessler is looking at a battle with Michigan State's Connor Cook to be the first quarterback drafted in 2016. No, we're not ignoring Dak Prescott. We just think NFL teams will like Cook and Kessler's passing skills more than Prescott's running and passing ability.


If you're looking for a negative for Kessler, you can point to the loss of offensive talent to the draft at USC's skill positions. Gone are Nelson Agholor and Buck Allen, who was USC's leading rusher and second-leading receiver. While JuJu Smith is back, those departures are a big blow to USC's Pac-12 and College Football Playoff hopes in 2015.


However, if Kessler throws for 39 touchdowns and five interceptions again with a different supporting cast, he'll get a lot of draft pub. Yes, there will be the inevitable Matt Leinart and Matt Barkley comparisons, but his name is Cody, not Matt.


Most perplexing decision to go pro: We're sticking with USC and going with WR George Farmer, who was a junior in 2014. Famer had 25 catches last season and has 30 for his career. He didn't go over 100 yards once in his USC tenure. The runner-up to Kessler? Stanford's Kevin Hogan.


Farmer has struggled with injuries in his USC career. He missed the 2013 season and before that, he had switched between receiver and running back. When he came to USC in the class of 2011, he was the No. 1 receiver in the country according to Rivals and the No. 3 player in the country. And yes, his class at USC included receivers Robert Woods and Marqise Lee.


So the talent is there. The production just hasn't been. His best game for USC was a four-catch, 85-yard performance that included two touchdowns against Notre Dame this year. He missed three games in 2014, but he only went over 60 yards in one other game. He ran track in high school and is considered a deep threat, yet he averaged just 12.6 yards a catch in his college career.


Farmer could put it all together in the pros and have a lengthy career. He also had a chance to be USC's No. 2 receiver in 2015 with Nelson Agholor's decision and boost his draft stock considerably.


Deepest class of early entries: Is this the best class of running backs to declare early for the draft? Look at the talent that's in this running back draft class. There's Wisconsin's Melvin Gordon, who was second in the Heisman voting. There's Georgia's Todd Gurley, who was the best running back in the SEC (when he was on the field). There's Indiana's Tevin Coleman, who was the most underappreciated running back in the country.


Oh, there's also Boise State's Jay Ajayi, Miami's Duke Johnson, Alabama's T.J. Yeldon and others. In all, 14 running backs declared early for the NFL draft.


And as you know, this is a fascinating time to be a running back. The value of the running back in the NFL has never been lower, yet it behooves running backs to leave early whenever possible to avoid another season of wear and tear at the college ranks. Less college carries could lead to a longer pro career.


If this was 10 years ago, Coleman, Gordon and Gurley may all be first-round picks. However, there hasn't been a first-round running back since Trent Richardson in 2012. This class looks set to make a big impact in the league. Just don't expect a glut of running backs in the first few rounds.


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Nick Bromberg is the assistant editor of Dr. Saturday on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at nickbromberg@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter!


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From Dr. Saturday - NCAAF - Yahoo Sports - The best pro decisions following the early-entry NFL draft deadline


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