Friday, November 14, 2014

Spread Options: Dr. Saturday's Week 12 picks against the spread



.500 is fleeting. We were 4-6 last week and are now 46-63-1 on the year. Onward.


Virginia Tech at Duke (-5.5), Noon ET: Two things are at play here. One, Duke has been old reliable this year, so we're going with the Blue Devils until they let us down. Two, Virginia Tech is a far cry from the team that beat Ohio State. Since this game is in Durham, Duke shouldn't have an issue at all and the march to 11-1 continues.


Ohio State at Minnesota (+14), Noon ET: Upset alert for the Buckeyes? Nah. Minnesota may not be as good as it looked in blowing out Iowa last week, but it's not as bad as the Illinois loss either. The Gophers have the ability to keep this game close and not let Ohio State stampede away like what happened in the second half against Michigan State. J.T. Barrett is still the difference, however.


South Carolina (+7) at Florida, Noon ET: It's the perfect battle of weakness aginst weakness. Florida's offense has struggled for most of the season and South Carolina's defense, well, yeah, it has as well. While Steve Spurrier and Will Muschamp are friends and Spurrier is a Florida alum, you know how fun it'd be to have a quotable Spurrier joyous after a victory. The Gamecocks put a dagger in Florida's dim SEC East title hopes.


Rice (+21.5) at Marshall, 2:30 p.m. ET: Rice is on a six-game winning streak after starting 0-3. The three losses were to Notre Dame, Texas A&M and then a three-point loss to Old Dominion. Yes, Marshall blew out ODU, but we're betting on the carbohydrates to keep it relatively close, though Marshall stays undefeated and tries to get into a New Year's Bowl.


Mississippi State (+8.5) at Alabama, 3:30 p.m. ET: The Tide wins this game and throws the College Football Playoff into more craziness, but this game isn't going to be a home shellacking. Mississippi State does give up over 300 yards a game through the air, but the Bulldogs are 35th in FBS in pass efficiency defense. Stopping Alabama WR Amari Cooper is easier said than done, but our bet is MSU bottles Cooper up enough to help cover the number.


Indiana at Rutgers (UNDER 55), 3:30 p.m.: Since losing two quarterbacks against Iowa, Indiana has scored 17, 10 and 7 points in its last three games. Rutgers' last three games have gone 17, 24, 0. Oh, yes, each team is on a three-game losing streak. Why are we writing about this? Who the heck would put a bet on this? Who is going to watch this?


Georgia Southern at Navy (UNDER 63), 3:30 p.m. ET: Georgia Southern scores almost 43 points per game while Navy is at just under 32. But this game ends up below average for both teams because the schools are used to defending each other. Both option-based teams have incredible advantages against their opponents because of the style and rarity of its offenses. But we're counting on defensive familiarity here. Fun fact: Georgia Southern is No. 1 in rushing offense and No. 125 in passing offense. Navy is No. 2 in rushing offense and No. 126 in passing offense.


Utah (+8) at Stanford, 6 p.m. ET: Does Stanford need the game for bowl eligibility? At 5-4, there's a scenario where the Cardinal loses to Utah, Cal and UCLA and finishes 5-7. Or you could say that Stanford wins all three games and finishes 8-4. While the scoreline against Oregon looked bad for Utah, if Kaelin Clay doesn't drop the ball, who knows what happens. And the Utes took Arizona State to overtime on the road. Stanford is not the caliber of either team.


Auburn (+2) at Georgia, 7:15 p.m. ET: Auburn gives up 130 yards a game rushing while Georgia gives up 153. Yes, Georgia's number is inflated because of the Florida game, but this number is different if Auburn doesn't have two self-inflicted turnovers in the waning minutes against Texas A&M. The Tigers are the better team and get the edge in both the running and passing game, even with Todd Gurley back for the Bulldogs.


Florida State (-3) at Miami, 8 p.m. ET: Sorry, the upset's not happening, Miami. While Brad Kaaya has received deserved attention for his play as a freshman, look for Florida State to force Kaaya to win the game by focusing on Duke Johnson and Miami's running game. Meanwhile, Jameis Winston continues his theme of playing his best when there's a ton of focus on Florida State and the Seminoles win this one pretty easily.


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Nick Bromberg is the assistant editor of Dr. Saturday on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at nickbromberg@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter!


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